Coalition to release nuclear costings – what we know so far
Adam Morton
We haven’t seen the details, but the opposition has released them to some newspapers. It reports that the opposition will claim its plan will lead to 38% of electricity coming from nuclear energy and 54% from renewable energy by 2050 and cost $263bn less than Labor’s policy to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
We can’t assess the Coalition’s claims without seeing them in detail, but there are a few things worth remembering today:
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Most independent experts including the CSIRO don’t agree that adding nuclear power could lead to a cheaper grid. They have repeatedly found that solar and wind with firming support from energy storage, new transmission connections and “peaking” gas plants is the cheapest source of electricity.
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CSIRO’s latest draft Gencost report – its annual assessment of electricity costs – this week found electricity generated from renewable energy with firming support in 2030 would cost at least 50% less than nuclear.
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Several energy experts told Guardian Australia that international experience suggested the cost of building nuclear power plants could be much higher than the CSIRO has suggested – possibly more than double.
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The Coalition will defend its policy using analysis by Danny Price, from the consultants Frontier Economics. He has a long history in national energy and climate debates, mostly working with the Coalition.
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Price reportedly says his modelling shows the “total system cost” of the electricity grid is cheaper with 38% nuclear power and 53% renewable energy than if it runs overwhelmingly on solar and wind plus firming. A first stage of Price’s analysis last month argued the Australian Energy Market Operator had underestimated the cost of running the grid predominantly on renewable energy and storage, largely because the operator had adjusted for inflation, a standard accounting practice.
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The Coalition and News Corp tabloids have claimed that Price’s work was evidence of a “$500bn green hole” in Labor’s plan. But this is not a widely held view.
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A 44-year-old woman and a 44-year-old man from the state’s western suburbs have been arrested for criminal neglect and deception offences.
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Police will allege the couple caused psychological harm to their child by falsely purporting a cancer diagnosis, shaving their six-year-old’s head, eyebrows and placing them in a wheelchair with bandages to imitate radiotherapy treatment.
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The couple allegedly requested donations to fund ongoing medical treatment, with about $60,000 donated in a two-week period. But investigations have confirmed the child is not seeking medical treatment, police allege.
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Acting assistant commissioner John DeCandia said both people have been refused police bail and will face court today:
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We believe this farce illness is causing significant and serious psychological harm to the child and their sibling.
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The children have been removed from the custody of the parents, police confirmed, and a relative is providing short-term care.
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Standing up the validity of Danny Price’s estimates of the costs of the Coalition’s nuclear plans is pointless without seeing the modelling “black box” of assumptions that went into it.
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We might see Price’s report later this morning – so his firm Frontier Economics tells us – but it would need an economic modeller to unpick the calculations even if they are transparent.
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Bruce Mountain, head of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, says the claims should not “be paid much mind”. (Those by the Australian Energy Market Operator shouldn’t be taken as gospel either.)
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No one really has the foggiest idea of what it will cost to develop nuclear in Australia. So many things in the production, distribution and consumption of electricity are changing quickly and many of the factors that affect costs and implementation are simply not known. Those claiming to know these things with certainty, should not be taken seriously.
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It’s perhaps worth remembering that former agriculture economist Brian Fisher claimed in 2019 that the then opposition Labor’s climate policies would cost $542bn just between 2021 and 2030. The claim got a lot of media traction in the run-up to that election even though the modelling made some “ridiculous” claims as noted at the time.
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We won’t have to wait too much longer for the Coalition’s long-awaited nuclear energy costings. The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has just announced a Brisbane news conference in about 90 minutes’ time (9.30am local time, 10.30am AEDT).
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We understand the Frontier Economics report unpacking the costings will be released around the same time. We’ll be bringing you a lot of coverage of this press conference and through the day.
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Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce has been speaking with ABC RN about the Coalition’s nuclear policy costings. He said that amid the announcement there would be “all the hypothesis and all the rhetoric”, but pitched the policy to voters:
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Here’s the two points of truth you have to ask yourself. Is my power bill cheap? Am I happy with what is happening? And is every other country on the globe off their head with nuclear power, or are we actually dragging the chain?
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Host Patricia Karvelas has asked multiple times if he could promise power prices would go down over the next term under the Coalition? But he will not answer directly, instead criticising Labor’s plan.
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Joyce went on to say:
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That is asking for a hypothetical question, which I could answer for you, but I would not be telling the truth, because I don’t have the facts before me.
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Qantas says it has put a number of contingencies in place as hundreds of engineers have walked off the job for 24 hours, amid pay negotiations.
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Qantas said it has been notified about work stoppages by some of its aircraft maintenance engineers today and on 20 December. The airline said it expects to have the resources available to cover today’s flights, and that about 160 engineers are rostered on today.
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The ABC reports that about 500 engineers across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth airports started walking off the job from 3.30am, local time, and would not return until 7.30am, local time, on Saturday.
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Pay negotiations have broken down between Qantas and the unions representing engineers, over their request for a 25% pay rise.
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A Qantas spokesperson said “at this time of year our aircraft are full and airports are busy so we urge customers to give themselves more time to get through security and get to their aircraft”.
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We’re offering our engineers a competitive package including pay rises, upskilling and career progression that will enable them to earn significantly more over the next few years.
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The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, says that the Coalition would have had to do some “mathematical gymnastics” to make its “vague” nuclear costings add up.
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Asked if he accepts the Coalition’s nuclear policy would be $263bn cheaper than Labor’s renewable policy, Bowen said “maybe they’ll throw in the Harbour Bridge and the Sydney Opera House as well with that sort of costing”.
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We’ll go through the details today. I don’t believe they have released it to the ABC or the ALP, funnily enough, but clearly they had to do some mathematical gymnastics to make this in any vague way add up. They have even downgraded their costings of renewable energy by around $30bn over the last couple of weeks. If that policy didn’t last pass an election, why would the nuclear costings last any longer?
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Emily Wind here, signing on for blogging duties this Friday. I’ll be taking you through our live coverage for most of today.
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As always, you can read out with any tips via email: [email protected]. Let’s get started.
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We’ve asked Danny Price and Frontier Economics (which he co-founded and of which he is managing director) for a copy of the report he has compiled for the Coalition on its nuclear plans.
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From what’s reported in the media given excerpts from Price’s report, we find a few puzzling results. As we reported here last month, Price’s part 1 of two reports was intended to set a “base case” for the second component.
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For unexplained reasons (so far), that base shifted to the tune $48bn in a couple of weeks, at least as far as Price’s estimate of what Labor’s net zero plans for the grid entail. Price claimed the latter – based on the Australian Energy Market Operator’s most likely “step change” scenario – would cost $642bn but that number drops to $594bn in the second report, according to details in the Daily Telegraph. That’s not so far off Aemo’s “real cost” estimate of $580bn, or so Price stated in his “base case” part 1 report.
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(The $122bn Aemo tally was based on standard accounting methods to assess the “net present value” of future spending, a requirement imposed on Aemo by former Coalition energy minister Angus Taylor, the government revealed this week.)
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According to the version in the Daily Telegraph, only one-third of the remaining coal-fired generators will close by 2034, compared with 90% in Aemo’s “step change” scenario by then. The extension of already unreliable power plants would include additional fuel and maintenance costs, not to mention additional carbon pollution from the relatively emission intensive energy source.
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Media outlets, including the Australian Financial Review, which have been giving snippets of the Frontier Economics report, report overall electricity use will be lower by 2050 than Aemo estimates. One reason is that there will be less electrification of transport than Aemo forecasts but that presumably brings with it an additional fuel cost – not yet made public by Frontier – and additional carbon emissions that will count against a net zero achievement by 2050.
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Outlets given access to the extracts say nuclear is assumed to be “always on” and operating “around the clock”. This assessment compares with the 53%-89% range assumed by CSIRO in its latest GenCost report, based on operations of the present coal fleet average over 2011-21. In recent decades, the average capacity use globally has been in the 80% range, with 10% of reactors operating at a capacity factor of 60% or less. To run nuclear plants at full capacity – an unlikely assumption given maintenance needs, for starters – would also mean curtailing (block) output for renewable energy generators, undermining their costs and investment appeal to owners and their financial backers.
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No doubt there will be other assumptions carrying big question marks if/when we see the modelling Price plugged in.
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We haven’t seen the details, but the opposition has released them to some newspapers. It reports that the opposition will claim its plan will lead to 38% of electricity coming from nuclear energy and 54% from renewable energy by 2050 and cost $263bn less than Labor’s policy to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
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We can’t assess the Coalition’s claims without seeing them in detail, but there are a few things worth remembering today:
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Most independent experts including the CSIRO don’t agree that adding nuclear power could lead to a cheaper grid. They have repeatedly found that solar and wind with firming support from energy storage, new transmission connections and “peaking” gas plants is the cheapest source of electricity.
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CSIRO’s latest draft Gencost report – its annual assessment of electricity costs – this week found electricity generated from renewable energy with firming support in 2030 would cost at least 50% less than nuclear.
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Several energy experts told Guardian Australia that international experience suggested the cost of building nuclear power plants could be much higher than the CSIRO has suggested – possibly more than double.
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The Coalition will defend its policy using analysis by Danny Price, from the consultants Frontier Economics. He has a long history in national energy and climate debates, mostly working with the Coalition.
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Price reportedly says his modelling shows the “total system cost” of the electricity grid is cheaper with 38% nuclear power and 53% renewable energy than if it runs overwhelmingly on solar and wind plus firming. A first stage of Price’s analysis last month argued the Australian Energy Market Operator had underestimated the cost of running the grid predominantly on renewable energy and storage, largely because the operator had adjusted for inflation, a standard accounting practice.
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The Coalition and News Corp tabloids have claimed that Price’s work was evidence of a “$500bn green hole” in Labor’s plan. But this is not a widely held view.
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Key events
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Peter Dutton about to hold press conference in Brisbane on nuclear costings
The opposition leader Peter Dutton is about to address the media in Brisbane, where he is expected to outline the Coalition’s long-awaited nuclear energy costings.
We’ll bring you all the key points and claims here on the blog – and stay tuned as Adam Morton and Peter Hannam will be providing fact checks for us throughout the day.
The Frontier Economics report unpacking the costings is also due to be released around now. Our Canberra team will be looking at this and bringing us the latest.
Labor’s Patrick Gorman says Coalition forgot WA in nuclear modelling
The Labor MP for Perth, Patrick Gorman, has taken aim at the Coalition for apparently not including Western Australia in its nuclear modelling.
As reported by the Australian, the modelling does not include Western Australia, which is earmarked for a nuclear option under the Coalition plan.
Gorman wrote in a post to X:
How loose has Peter Dutton been with his nuclear reactor costings? So loose he forgot an *entire* state. ‘The modelling did not include Western Australia.’ The arrogance is astounding.
Climate Council accuses Coalition of ‘cooking the books’ on nuclear costings
The Climate Council has labelled the Coalition’s nuclear modelling as “misleading” and leaving out “big ticket items like the costs of dealing with radioactive waste”. It has accused the Coalition of “cooking the books” with their nuclear costings in four ways:
1) Ignoring the costs of keeping our ageing coal-fired generators operating for longer, which would cost a bomb in constant maintenance and fault repairs, and produce far more climate pollution.
2) Failing to account for Australia’s growing electricity needs, producing up to 45% less power than our current plan by 2050. The Australian Electricity Market Operator expects power generation to double by 2050, and assuming any less is inaccurate.
3) Underestimating the cost and timeline of building nuclear reactors, which international experience has shown cost on average 2.2 times more to build than their initial estimate, and take at least 15 years for construction alone.
4) Excluding significant and certain costs from their estimates, including the costs of managing highly radioactive nuclear waste.
Couple arrested for allegedly faking child’s cancer diagnosis to obtain $60k in donations
South Australian police have arrested two parents for allegedly pretending their child had cancer to garner $60,000 in donations.
A 44-year-old woman and a 44-year-old man from the state’s western suburbs have been arrested for criminal neglect and deception offences.
Police will allege the couple caused psychological harm to their child by falsely purporting a cancer diagnosis, shaving their six-year-old’s head, eyebrows and placing them in a wheelchair with bandages to imitate radiotherapy treatment.
The couple allegedly requested donations to fund ongoing medical treatment, with about $60,000 donated in a two-week period. But investigations have confirmed the child is not seeking medical treatment, police allege.
Acting assistant commissioner John DeCandia said both people have been refused police bail and will face court today:
We believe this farce illness is causing significant and serious psychological harm to the child and their sibling.
The children have been removed from the custody of the parents, police confirmed, and a relative is providing short-term care.
More details on Qantas engineers strike
AAP has more details on the Qantas engineers strike, with hundreds of staff walking off the job today. The strike comes after a six-week pause in industrial action during which the parties resolved to continue negotiations over a new enterprise agreement.
The union consortium, made up of the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union, Australian Workers’ Union and Electrical Trades Union, said Qantas forced the walkout by refusing to negotiate. Qantas is offering the workers a 9% pay rise over three years.
Further industrial action is planned for next Friday and during the Christmas period. The AMWU secretary, Steve Murphy, said:
Workers were asked by Qantas in good faith to not take industrial action as a commitment to resolve bargaining. For six weeks, Qantas has shown they cannot live up to their own values – they lied … workers are feeling disrespected by the behaviour of Qantas and we all know how that feels.
Unions have been negotiating for a deal with the airline since April but were unable to reach agreement before the exisiting arrangements expired in June. Qantas said it was offering a competitive package including pay rises, upskilling and career progression.
Electrical Trades Union says Coalition nuclear proposal ‘kills jobs and sows chaos’
The national secretary of the Electrical Trades Union, Michael Wright, has issued a statement on the Coalition’s nuclear costings. He said:
The members of this union are building Australia’s energy transition today with the lowest cost generation and transmission infrastructure plus battery storage for reliability.
And this is happening today. It is no assumption, we are living it. Tens of thousands of additional jobs for young electricians are being created every year under the low-cost generation and battery fast track.
Wright said that Peter Dutton’s nuclear proposal “kills jobs and sows chaos”, all to “generate less energy than we need, much later than we need it, for more money than anyone would pay”.
Taxpayers, power users and energy workers deserve real answers rather than the buried, delayed, half-baked effort we have seen today.
Nobody has ‘foggiest idea’ of what nuclear plans will really cost, energy thinktank head says
Peter Hannam
Standing up the validity of Danny Price’s estimates of the costs of the Coalition’s nuclear plans is pointless without seeing the modelling “black box” of assumptions that went into it.
We might see Price’s report later this morning – so his firm Frontier Economics tells us – but it would need an economic modeller to unpick the calculations even if they are transparent.
Bruce Mountain, head of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, says the claims should not “be paid much mind”. (Those by the Australian Energy Market Operator shouldn’t be taken as gospel either.)
No one really has the foggiest idea of what it will cost to develop nuclear in Australia. So many things in the production, distribution and consumption of electricity are changing quickly and many of the factors that affect costs and implementation are simply not known. Those claiming to know these things with certainty, should not be taken seriously.
It’s perhaps worth remembering that former agriculture economist Brian Fisher claimed in 2019 that the then opposition Labor’s climate policies would cost $542bn just between 2021 and 2030. The claim got a lot of media traction in the run-up to that election even though the modelling made some “ridiculous” claims as noted at the time.
Benita Kolovos
Jeroen Weimar to become Victorian transport department secretary
The Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, has announced the state’s former Covid-19 commander, Jeroen Weimar, will become the secretary for the Department for Transport and Planning.
Weimar has also previously held the role as the chief executive of the 2026 Commonwealth Games organising committee before the government scrapped its plans to host the event. He is currently in charge of the government’s housing policy implementation in the Department of Premier and Cabinet.
Allan said in a statement:
Jeroen has significant logistical and leadership experience in transport and planning. I look forward to the energy and enthusiasm he will bring to the task of leading teams that will deliver the ongoing transformation of the transport network and the government’s agenda to build more homes.
Over the last 10 years, Jeroen has held roles as head of transport services at the department of transport, CEO of VicRoads and CEO of Public Transport Victoria, where he worked to deliver a more reliable and accessible network for Victorians. He was previously chief operating officer of Transport for London.
He will begin on 27 January after the current secretary, Paul Younis, retires.
Dutton to front media in 90 minutes
Josh Butler
We won’t have to wait too much longer for the Coalition’s long-awaited nuclear energy costings. The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has just announced a Brisbane news conference in about 90 minutes’ time (9.30am local time, 10.30am AEDT).
We understand the Frontier Economics report unpacking the costings will be released around the same time. We’ll be bringing you a lot of coverage of this press conference and through the day.
Man charged after police discover firearm stash
More than 70 guns have been discovered at a residential property, AAP reports, with one man charged.
Police searched a house in Denistone East in Sydney’s north today where they seized 27 firearms, 45 other prohibited weapons and thousands of rounds of ammunition.
A 41-year-old man was arrested and taken to Gladesville police station, where he was charged with a slew of weapons offences. He was refused bail to appear before Burwood local court today.
Rowland, Karvelas sign off on ABC hosting roles
ABC News Breakfast host Michael Rowland has just signed off, as he leaves the program after 15 years.
As Amanda Meade reported earlier this month, Rowland is leaving six months after his former co-host Lisa Millar quit after five years. She was replaced by Bridget Brennan. The sports presenter Tony Armstrong also left News Breakfast in October.
Just a moment ago, Rowland gave his sign-off surrounded by his team and family:
Surrounded by the wonderful News Breakfast team, I want to take the opportunity to thank all of you. It’s a massive team effort … I’m so proud of the audience we have helped build over the years. And [I’ve] got lots of messages, I’ve been truly overwhelmed by them.
Today was also Patricia Karvelas’ last day as the host of ABC Radio National Breakfast after three years.
Qantas says 97% of domestic flights have departed on time amid strike
Qantas has just provided an update amid the engineers strike this morning.
As we flagged earlier, about 500 engineers across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth airports started walking off the job from 3.30am, local time.
The airline said that as of 8.30am, more than 97% of domestic Qantas flights have departed on time.
It said passengers should continue heading to the airport as they normally would but “as always, unplanned maintenance issues, weather, or other events may impact operations on the day.”
Conservation foundation says one-fifth of nuclear price tag could fund rooftop solar on every house that doesn’t already have it
The Australian Conservation Foundation has conducted analysis showing that for one-fifth of the Coalition’s nuclear price tag, the government could install rooftop solar on every house in the country that doesn’t already have it.
And for less than half of the $331bn price tag, the government could also install a battery system on every Australian house that doesn’t already have one, it found.
The analysis found the cost of installing solar PV systems on 6.9m dwellings would be about $63bn – based on the average installation cost for a 10kw solar system, at $9,120 in New South Wales and average battery installation costs, at $13,000 (AGL) – not including inverter costs.
The foundation’s chief executive, Kelly O’Shanassy, said the CSIRO’s GenCost work and multiple independent analyses “consistently rank nuclear as Australia’s most expensive energy option”.
The Coalition’s assumptions defy lived experience of the nuclear industry overseas, where nuclear projects routinely run over time and over budget, leaving taxpayers to pick up the tab.
She said in the “unlikely” event the Coalition’s nuclear plan goes ahead, “we would be waiting at least 20 years for the reactors”.
That is far too slow to be an effective response to the climate crisis, which is affecting Australians right here, right now. We don’t have two decades to waste … The Coalition’s plan … lacks fundamental detail on reactor types, the proportion of nuclear slated for the national grid, as well as site preparation, assessment, licencing and regulatory costs.
